NATO is still unprepared for biological threats. Future risks could be much more serious than this pandemic.
Future biological threats, natural like the current Covid 19 or even artificial in the case of a predetermined attack, may be faster, more disruptive and without borders. As recently argued by NATO's former Supreme Allied Commander Transformation, Admiral Stavridis: there is a need for a “war plan” in the future. And, it must be started immediately.
Italy should be at the forefront of this effort not only because it was the first Ally to be attacked by the epidemic, but because the Mediterranean and the MENA region, in the south of the Alliance, is very fragile with respect to these risks compounded by the complex dynamics of conflicts, economic crises, institutional frailties, and social challenges. NATO already opened the Strategic Direction South in Italy just two years ago, a center for the analysis of security problems in the southern periphery of the Alliance. In this changing world, especially with expected environmental and climatic impacts, this kind of crisis may become increasingly frequent. Thus, the sooner the transforming of the Alliance to defend against global and invisible threats the better.
As mentioned in my previous article, NATO should play four main roles: coordination for joint defense; greater cooperation between the civil and military world; a decisive surveillance role; and finally a defense against hybrid, cybernetic and cyber-attacks by non-state actors or by dictatorships competing on the world stage. In this article, I instead analyze specifically how to improve the tools that NATO has for the defense against biological threats, which seem the most pressing among the CBRN threats (Chemical, Biological, Radiological or Nuclear).
Allies already invest resources in military capabilities ranging from reconnaissance to prediction, protection and decontamination from CBRN. In addition, NATO adopted a Weapons of Mass Destruction Initiative (WMDI) in 1999, for a comprehensive political-military approach in the event of a CBRN attack. For this reason, the Alliance already has a "Combined Joint CBRN Defense" Task Force (with a multinational battalion), a "Joint CBRN Defense" Center of Excellence and a "Joint CBRN Defense Capability Development Group". Today, however, the time has come to update this initiative and make a qualitative leap. But how can these tools be improved so NATO can better defend against biological threats? Below are four specific points:
1) NATO should first develop more capabilities needed for CBRN defense. These capabilities do not only include military capabilities but also civilian capabilities, for example, vaccination and decontamination programs for infected areas, as well as changing existing doctrine based on the adoption of these new capabilities. This also means to create clear standardization documents, from standards for reconnaissance of contagions to regulation to reduce the movement of troops and avoid the spread of the disease caused by biological attack. Exercises and simulations could be conducted, not only in their own countries but also in partner countries, with the Cooperative Security programs, particularly with the Peace and Security Science Program already active.
2) NATO should make better use of its teams and centers dedicated to protecting health and protecting civilians in emergencies. In addition to those mentioned, first of all the "CBRN Medical Working Group", established under the COMEDS (Chiefs of Military Medical Services) as a group responsible for the standardization of all NATO activities related to health protection; the "Civil Emergency Planning Committee"; the “NATO Research and Technology Organization”; and the "Euro-Atlantic Disaster Response Coordination Center” (EADRCC), of which Spain had requested activation with this crisis. Under the auspices of these centers, the Allies have organized an inventory of military and civilian capabilities since 1998 that can be used for countries in difficulty or under attack. In this sense, NATO should also use more its Strategic Transformation Command in Norfolk, VA, where the Strategic Foresight Analysis report for the alliance is periodically done, followed by the Future Framework for Alliance Operations. These tools should be the basis for making detailed plans on possible future risks and above all preparing the Alliance starting from exercises that simulate contaminated environments or using big data analysis for more detailed forecasts.
3) NATO should increase cooperation within its structures between the civil and military spheres and also with other international actors. There should be greater cooperation first and foremost between NATO intelligence and the community of scientists working on public and global health, but also with the scientific and technological community and the private sector that is involved in producing medical material necessary for pandemics. Recently, for example, in the COVID-19 crisis, the NATO Agency for Support and Procurement (NSPA) collaborated with an Italian start-up, to produce masks for respirators with 3D printers. NATO should then promote regional cooperation and interoperability; increase its cooperation also with the EU and with UN or WHO, in order to already have models of cooperative action ready in the event of an epidemic explosion.
4) NATO should finally update its cyber defense and AI. In fact, the two threats, biological and cyber / AI, will be increasingly connected. With the lockdown our societies become much more fragile to cyber-attacks, with quarantines for example all people will live and work from home with a need for always active online services. A cyberattack blocking all internet functions in epidemic stages would be a devastating shock. But above all, the Alliance should greatly develop its Artificial Intelligence, given that the AI era has already begun and could jeopardize the ability of the scientific community or even the governments to defend themselves from the virus. By developing artificial intelligence with both biotechnology and information technology, NATO must become one of the first in the creation of bio-IT tools that can not only track viruses in people but help to fight them with nanotechnologies as soon as vaccines or antivirals will be available. This will perhaps also represent a tipping point for our humanity, given that, as some intellectuals like Yuval Harari claim, we are going through a transition from Homo Sapiens to another type of species.
In short, there is a need for a proactive strategic agenda for this new era of uncertainties. Not just immediate reactions that focus on the "here and now". Rather, there are needs for a "plan A" and many other "plan B's" with an efficient and sustainable strategy over time. There is no time to lose.
Dr. Maurizio Geri is a Stabilization & Socio-Cultural Advisor. He leads research and activism on peace, democratization, human rights, defense and security. Recently, Dr. Geri worked as a Strategic Analyst for the NATO Allied Command Transformation in the US on issues of instability in North Africa and Sahel. He also consulted with the NATO South Hub on Human Security topics. Dr. Geri holds an MA in Cultural Studies (about Gender, Migration and Security) from the University of Florence, Italy and a PhD in International Studies (focused on International Conflict and Cooperation) from Old Dominion University in Virginia, US.
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