It has been 30 years since the end of the Cold War. Now, the greatest risk is not from a nuclear or chemical threat but biological. To date, NATO and the Allied armed forces (let alone the armies of the rest of the world) do not have adequate tools to deal with epidemic emergencies and biological wars at scale. The Covid 19 crisis is borderless. It has demonstrated the fragility of national and regional security and socio-political-economic systems. It is an unprecedented threat and the global community lacks the necessary forecasting skills and ability to implement a clear, concrete and effective strategic response. Future infectious diseases, natural like Covid 19 or a weaponized virus, could be even more disruptive and devastating. Therefore, a joint effort by the Alliance will be needed.
In the past 20 years, the world has experienced at least three major Severe Acute Respiratory Syndromes from Coronavirus: SARS-Cov in 2003, MERS in 2012, and this SARS-Cov 2, and two pandemics, the Swine Flu of 2009 and the current Coronavirus, Covid 19. However, only the latter had a significant transmission of global inter-human contagion.
How many years do we have to wait for the next pandemic? It is increasingly unpredictable and immediate in today's world. What level of transmission and mortality could the next pandemic bring? We can’t predict all the variables, but we can prepare.
The armed forces could help meet the commitments of civil institutions in the event of a serious health crises. Since the end of the Cold War, NATO has adapted to new threats and new international balances including expanding from its two strategic pillars of deterrence and defense to include cooperative security and crisis management. For the former, it has opened channels of cooperation like the Mediterranean countries (Mediterranean Dialogue) with the Gulf countries (Instanbul Cooperation Initiative) and with the African Union. For the latter, it mainly carried out operations in the Balkans. But, how can these be applied to an invisible, changeable and extremely fast enemy, which cannot be eliminated with the use of force?
NATO could play a crucial role in guaranteeing "human security", as well as in defending national security. To do so, it would need adequate tools and skills.
NATO is a political-military alliance. In a global health crisis, political cooperation is as important as military cooperation. Some analysts, such as the President of the Atlantic Council, have even suggested the activation of Art. 5, as used after 9/11, to give the leadership and cohesion necessary to fight a global threat. Regardless of this possibility, what are the innovative roles and strategies that the Alliance could adopt in the face of a global disease challenge which could jeopardize the very existence of our modern civilization?
The first important task of an alliance like NATO is to carry out joint defense coordination actions during these crises. Crises such as the Covid 19 pandemic, which can create social, economic, political and geopolitical upheavals, will need to have coordinated international, regional and global cooperation. Initially, there may be nationalistic and populist resurgence with countries unable to respond to the needs of a globalized, complex and therefore fragile population and territory. As an alliance, NATO should help coordinate a common response model, in collaboration with political institutions, to provide immediate responses and make populations safe and secure.
The second role would be that of cooperation between the civil and military. An extraordinary effort is occurring in Italy, with the commitment of the Armed Forces to help public institutions in various ways, not only with transport logistics, medical supplies and communications, but also with the skills of the Military Health Service and those of the Corps of Engineers (for example recently in helping respirators manufacturers). But this isn’t enough. Rather, it will take a plan of national “Civil Defense”, in which the armies collaborate with civil institutions, to enable national and individual resilience following the principles of prevention, damage reduction, resilience and recovery.
Civil resilience is the first line of defense. NATO could increase its collaboration with civil institutions to ensure the continuity of government services, energy sources, food and water resources, transport systems and communications in the event of serious crises. There are many examples that can be followed. For example, the US Army coordinated with NGOs such as Doctors Without Borders or the Red Cross during the Ebola crisis; using hospital ships such as Comfort and Mercy (currently used for the crisis in New York and Los Angeles) and; by rapidly constructing field hospitals and using other means and operational tools of civil-military cooperation.
NATO could provide surveillance to help manage the crisis and control the extent of an outbreak. Reconnaissance aircraft and drones are already used in the civil sector. For example, they are used to monitor the borders, to control human trafficking and illegal immigration, or for rescue operations from natural disasters. Drone ships are used to monitor waterways and shipping channels. NATO is currently developing the Alliance Ground Surveillance (AGS) reconnaissance system with 15 countries included in the project and five NATO RQ-4D remotely piloted aircraft (the operational base will be Sigonella). This could be an area of industrial and technological development and significant economic consequences.
The Alliance could make more use of its Strategic Transformation Command in Norfolk, VA, where the Strategic Foresight Analysis report is periodically done, followed by the Future Framework for Alliance Operations. These tools should be the basis for making detailed plans and models on possible future developing exercises simulating contaminated environments, using big data analysis to help with forecasting and developing artificial intelligence with both biotechnology and information technology, to become the first in the creation of bio-computer tools that track viruses in people but help fight them with nanotechnologies as soon as vaccines or antivirals are available.
Finally, strengthen the role of NATO in the event of biological and pandemic crises to defend to thwart hybrid, cybernetic and propaganda attacks by state and non-state actors (including terrorist or criminal groups).. For example, both Russia and China are blamed for exploiting the current crisis with their Sharp Power and Soft Power by sending aid and spreading false claims and weakening the divide between Europe and the Atlantic alliance (with representatives of European countries that are already starting to criticize EU inaction and praise Asian aid).
NATO can and must continue its transformation and increase its role as a key player to predict and prevent instability and in crisis management and cooperative security. We don't know how the Covid 19 pandemic will end. But, one thing is certain, the world will never be the same again. As such, NATO must learn, adapt and prepare to take a leadership role for future pandemics.
Dr. Maurizio Geri is a Stabilization & Socio-Cultural Advisor. He leads research and activism on peace, democratization, human rights, defense and security. Recently, Dr. Geri worked as a Strategic Analyst for the NATO Allied Command Transformation in the US on issues of instability in North Africa and Sahel. He also consulted with the NATO South Hub on Human Security topics. Dr. Geri holds an MA in Cultural Studies (about Gender, Migration and Security) from the University of Florence, Italy and a PhD in International Studies (focused on International Conflict and Cooperation) from Old Dominion University in Virginia, US.
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